F1 title permutations: How Verstappen could win title on Sunday

Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton’s thrilling championship battle could be settled at the season’s penultimate round, the Saudi Arabian GP, this weekend where the Dutchman will have the first chance to clinch a maiden F1 title.

Hamilton has claimed back-to-back victories to boost his chances, but Verstappen’s eight-point lead means that if results go his way on Sunday, the championship would not go down to the Abu Dhabi finale.

Verstappen needs an advantage of 26 points after the first-ever race at Saudi Arabia’s high-speed Jeddah street track, on December 5, to seal an early crown, meaning he has to outscore Hamilton by 18 points.

As there is a maximum of 26 points available for a win and a fastest lap bonus point, Hamilton could therefore stop Verstappen, no matter what his rival manages, by finishing fifth or higher.

How Verstappen can win title at Saudi Arabian GP

If he wins the race with the fastest lap (26 points) and Hamilton finishes sixth (8 points) or lowerIf he wins the race without the fastest lap (25 points) and Hamilton finishes seventh (6 points) or lowerIf he finishes second with the fastest lap (19 points) and Hamilton finishes 10th (1 point) or lowerIf he finishes second without the fastest lap (18 points) and Hamilton finishes outside the top-10

There has been an 18-point swing or more between the pair just twice this season: in Monaco when Verstappen won and Hamilton was seventh, and at Silverstone where Hamilton won after the Verstappen crash.

The pair could also go into the Abu Dhabi GP in an appealing ‘winner takes all’ scenario, while there is the possibility that they are level heading to that last race if Hamilton wins Jeddah with a fastest lap, and Verstappen is second.

Verstappen only needs a 26-point lead going to the finale to clinch the title because he currently owns the title ‘tie break’ over Hamilton with nine wins to seven, giving him the advantage should they finish level on points.

Hamilton can of course match Verstappen with nine victories by winning the next two, although if that happens he would seal the title regardless and there wouldn’t be a tie break.

What they said about title battle after Qatar

Verstappen: “Of course I know it’s going to be difficult to the end but I think that’s nice, it keeps it exciting.

“I would of course have liked to make it a bigger gap, but when you don’t have the pace, it’s impossible to do that, so we’ll just try to be better, and come back strong, especially in Saudi on the street track, and then we’ll see in Abu Dhabi.”

Hamilton: “I’m loving it. I love the close battle, the pressure, the demands it puts on you and the whole team.

“So I thoroughly enjoyed it but these next two races need even better performance, so we’ll be bringing our ‘triple A’ game for those ones.”

Mercedes vs Red Bull also going down to the wire

The constructors’ battle is even less likely to be settled in Saudi Arabia, with Mercedes currently holding just a five-point advantage over Red Bull in what has been an increasingly bitter rivalry.

Both drivers accrue points to the team’s total, so there is a maximum of 44 up for grabs in Saudi Arabia with a race win (25 points) and a second place (18 points) – either with a fastest lap.

Mercedes’ Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas would therefore need to outscore Red Bull’s Verstappen and Sergio Perez by 38 points to claim the Silver Arrows’ eighth straight title.

If Verstappen and Perez have an unscathed weekend in Jeddah, that scenario is of course extremely unlikely.